One in 5,000.
According to The New York Times, those are the daily odds that a vaccinated person experiences a breakthrough COVID-19 infection. In areas with high vaccination rates, the odds are probably closer to 1 in 10,000 each day.
Here’s one way to think about a one-in-10,000 daily chance: It would take more than three months for the combined risk to reach just 1 percent.
Those figures – based off data from Utah, Virginia, and the greater Seattle area – offers reassurance to the 53% of Americans who are fully vaccinated. It also allays fears created by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in July, when it announced that vaccinated people carry roughly the same viral load of the delta variant in their noses and throats as unvaccinated people.
The Times writes, “In recent weeks, however, more data has become available, and it suggests that the true picture is less alarming. Yes, Delta has increased the chances of getting Covid for almost everyone. But if you’re vaccinated, a Covid infection is still uncommon, and those high viral loads are not as worrisome as they initially sounded.”
“In an unvaccinated person, a viral load is akin to an enemy army facing little resistance. In a vaccinated person, the human immune system launches a powerful response and tends to prevail quickly — often before the host body gets sick or infects others. That the viral loads were initially similar in size can end up being irrelevant,” the Times explains.
The Times cautions that its calculations are based on documented cases; a greater number of breakthrough infections may exists, but they aren’t severe enough to trigger a test. Those asymptomatic patients are less likely to spread COVID-19.
Despite the effectiveness of the vaccines, Americans are still fearful of the virus. The Times reports:
In a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, nearly half of adults judged their “risk of getting sick from the coronavirus” as either moderate or high — even though 75 percent of adults have received at least one shot.
In reality, the risks of getting any version of the virus remain small for the vaccinated, and the risks of getting badly sick remain minuscule.