Texas Governor Greg Abbott says he’s ready to reopen “massive amounts of businesses.” In Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp has mandated you can go bowling and get a tattoo (among other things) beginning tomorrow. And, not to be outdone, Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman wants all the casinos open again. But the vast majority of political leaders are being much more cautious.
CNN’s Brian Stelter notes in his Reliable Sources Newsletter that to really understand what’s coming in the next few months, perhaps we need to tune out the politicians and tune into the public health experts and CEO’s.
“I think we’re seeing a repeat of mid-March, when corporate leaders moved more swiftly than political leaders to shut down key sectors of American society. Now, in late April, we’re seeing companies act much more realistically than elected officials like Georgia governor Brian Kemp and Las Vegas mayor Carolyn Goodman.
“To be sure, some elected officials are getting it right. But right now chief executives in the media and tech sectors seem to have a better grasp on consumer behavior and psychology than many political pros.“
He points to multiple movie studios moving away from planned summer releases.
Earlier this week a prominent UBS analyst, John Hodulik, said he doesn’t expect Disney to reopen U.S. theme parks until January 2021 at the earliest.
“Some of this summer and fall’s conferences and festivals have already been cancelled or pushed until 2021.“
“Goldman Sachs analysts earlier this week: “We conclude that there is a significant risk of a second wave if policy or distancing behavior are eased prematurely and indiscriminately, and that a successful reopening strategy is likely to involve a sharp ramp-up in testing and contact tracing, as well as low-cost public hygiene measures.”
As for his own employer, he reports CNN boss Jeff Zucker told employees earlier this week that many will not return to the office before September.
For those who want to open early, there is a gruesome tradeoff, writes The New York Times:
“How many deaths are acceptable to reopen the country before the coronavirus is completely eradicated? “One is too many,” President Trump insists, a politically safe formulation that any leader would instinctively articulate.
“But that is not the reality of Mr. Trump’s reopen-soon approach. Nor for that matter will it be the bottom line for even those governors who want to go slower. Until there is a vaccine or a cure for the coronavirus, the macabre truth is that any plan to begin restoring public life invariably means trading away some lives. The question is how far will leaders go to keep it to a minimum.“
