Last night in Arizona, a special election was held to fill a congressional seat that should have been an easy pickup for the GOP. It wasn’t. The party spent over a million dollars in a district that Donald Trump won by 21 points. In the end Republican Debbie Lesko won the race, but the margin will give her party pause.
Republican Debbie Lesko won the House special election in Arizona, but her single-digit margin in a district Trump carried by 21 points has GOP strategists concerned https://t.co/YiPfx03aE1 pic.twitter.com/PxqCphwGZR
— POLITICO (@politico) April 25, 2018
The win reverses a tide of Democratic pickups in special elections. But the trend continues to shade blue. From Axios:
“Top Republicans have conceded for months that they’re likely lose the House in November’s midterms. But some well-wired operatives now tell Jonathan Swan and me that President Trump may face his real nightmare: losing the Senate, giving Democrats both ends of the Capitol, and one-third of the government.”
Here’s a headline from Wednesday’s The New York Times:
Republicans Lost Support in Every Special Election Since Trump Became President
To win the House, Dems need an average overperformance of 4% vs. @CookPolitical PVI. Here's their overperformance in the past 8 specials:#KS04: 12%#MTAL: 8%#GA06: 6%#SC05: 7%#UT03: 6%#ALSEN: 15%#PA18: 11%#AZ08: 11%
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) April 25, 2018
If the only data point you had to go on was last night's #AZ08 result, you'd think a 30-40 seat Dem House gain in Nov. would be way low.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) April 25, 2018