The small back-to-work protests that have been popping up around the country have been receiving outsized attention on mainstream media. But there’s a motive to this far beyond small groups sporting assault rifles and waving American flags. It’s a very calculating move to, with the help of Fo News get Donald Trump reelected. Everything is about self-preservation.
To that end, we came across this thesis about the protests by Professor Jeremy Menchik of Boston University. It’s a fascinating analogy of what’s really happening on the fringes of Trumpworld. His thread below originally appeared on Twitter:
“It’s tempting to dismiss the protesters in MI, VA, TX, CA, and MN as irrelevant wakadoddles. That’s a mistake. Social science research suggests continued protests could effect the 2020 US presidential election in at least 6 ways.
“Key to note: the protests aren’t random. They bear the hallmarks of a right wing populist campaign: anti-elite #FireFauci, xenophobia #ChineseCoronaVirus, conspiracy (virus originated in Wuhan lab), hostility to international institutions #WHOLiedPeopleDied, coordinated w/Fox etc.
“Some evidence suggests the protests are what scholars call an “astroturf campaign” where sponsors are masked. There’s coordinated messaging, similar websites and domains registered at the same time. In other words: may be orchestrated by Trump allies.
If the protests continue and grow, social movement scholars suggest we’ll see 6+ effects:
1- Continued protests will boost conservative turnout in Nov 2020. Tea Party events in April 2009 “led to more Republican votes in the 2010 midterm elections… .1% point increase in the share of the population protesting corresponds to 1.9% point increase in share of GOP votes.”
2 – Continued protests will help frame the 2020 election as a choice between the pro-open economy Trump, or the Washington insider #BeijingBiden who is complicit in China’s efforts to hurt working class Americans through the #ChineseCoronaVirus.
3- Continued protests will polarize the electorate. Research by McVeigh, Cunningham and Farrell (ASR 2014) demonstrates “Radical social movements can exacerbate tensions in local settings while drawing attn to how movement goals align with political party agenda.”
4- Continued protests will distract the electorate. If the election is a fight between Trump vs Governors who refuse to open their economies, Trump doesn’t have to defend his record on COVID-19. He’s an advocate for liberty!
5 – Continued protests will help Trump rebuild his coalition of 2016. Scholars of digital social movements emphasize a logic of connective action not collective action; where personalized content sharing across media networks enables coalition building.
These protests have something for everyone: small-business concerns for the working class, anti-elitism for resentful rural whites, fetishism of guns for NRA, dislike of govt for traditional conservatives. It’s a cross-cutting issue even amid a pandemic.
6 – Continued protests will signal a winning issue for GOP officials, who will further rally behind Trump. Research on elite perception of public opinion suggests that elected officials often fail to accurately perceive their constituent’s views.
A final point. This argument will be hard to stomach for anyone aware of how the administration has handled COVID-19. Or anyone that thinks the economy shapes voter behavior. Or anyone who thinks that America’s political culture is functional.
