Given the border wall is not very popular, it’s probably not surprising that an emergency declaration for money to build it would be either. It’s not.
Marist, long one of the most respected polls, is out with some significant numbers that go beyond thumbs up or down. First the big picture.
On whether registered voters approve of the emergency declaration, 61 percent say no, and 36 percent say yes. The 36 percent is about the same as who support of the border wall.
But here’s where it gets interesting. As the Washington Post reports, the opposition spans nearly every demographic group.
“Perhaps more important in the Marist poll, though, is this question: “Does President Trump declaring a national emergency to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border make you more likely or less likely to vote for him for reelection in 2020?” On that question, a majority — 54 percent — says this is a motivator to vote against Trump, while just 33 percent say it’s more likely to make them vote for Trump.
“The utility of this question is up for debate. Oftentimes it breaks down like the broader question, and that’s certainly the case here. But it can also give us insight into whether the opposition is inflated by people who simply don’t care all that much — and whether Trump might even reap a bigger benefit by motivating his base. But that doesn’t seem to be the case here — at least judging from this one poll.
For example, non-college-educated white men supported Trump 71-23 percent, but the emergency declaration makes them less like to back him 47-41 percent. That’s a big swing. And while it’s still a long way from Election Day, voters have had a long time to think about the wall and how to fund it. Trump first raised the idea of an emergency declaration before the government shutdown more than a month ago.
You can read all the results of the NPR/PRS/Marist College poll here.