From Dan–A lot of what passes for news lately has to do with guesses about how easy it may be to seize control of Congress from President Trump and his Republicans in this year’s November elections. And not all of this comes from Democrats. Given Mr. Trump’s tweets, his personality, and character…many of his policies and the chaos in which he seems to specialize…even some Republicans are predicting a bad year at the polls.
Any review of the economic facts and objective analysis would conclude: “Not so fast.” “Don’t be so sure.”
A lifetime of reporting on politics has lead me, and many others, to conclude that most people vote their pocketbooks. If the overall economy seems good or at least improving, incumbents and ruling parties tend to win. New polling from CNN this morning shows the gap narrowing between parties.
As the midterm election year begins, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds the Democratic advantage on a generic congressional ballot has tightened to a narrow 5 points among registered voters, but those voters who say they are most enthusiastic about turning out to vote this fall favor Democrats by a wide 15-point margin.
The U.S. economy was good and getting better under President Obama, and he deserves some of the credit for bringing it back from the low under President Bush and Republicans in 2008. But, the stock market and the overall economy are even better and getting better still since Mr. Trump became President.
If—if—this continues through late in the year, will it be enough to overcome all of the negatives Trump and Republicans have been building…enough for them to keep control of both the House and Senate? Just asking…remembering in normal times, most people do vote their pocketbooks. But these are far from normal times. Will the Trump era be different? Will there be no “politics as usual” in 2018? We have the rare window when political winds will meet the economic winds. Which is stronger? However you feel, this is not a time to be complacent. Enormous political movements are happening right now. Get involved today!