Democrats Flip Another Supposedly Safe Trump District

A month after Doug Jones stunned the political world to become the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Alabama in decades, and two months after the GOP faced steep losses in Virginia, the results of another special election buoyed Democrats and dismayed Republicans. In Wisconsin’s 10th Senate District, Democrat Patty Schachtner cleaned the clock of her Republican opponent, State Rep, Adam Jarchow, 55% to 44%. The seat had previously been held by a Republican, and Trump won the district handily last November. Mitt Romney also carried the district in 2012.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker immediately sounded the alarm.

The district, which falls along Wisconsin’s western border, comprises some rural communities but also many affluent suburbs to the east of St. Paul, Minnesota. Local Republicans traditionally need to run up the score in districts like this one to offset Democratic strongholds in Milwaukee and Madison. But it is in these swing-district suburbs where Republicans increasingly appear vulnerable, as women and independent voters sour on the Trump administration.

Though Schachtner focused on the opioid epidemic and expanding access to health care during the campaign, the Democrat also provided a sharp contrast in tone from Republicans locally and at the national level, suggesting a winning playbook for other candidates. “My message has always been to be kind, be considerate and we need to help people when they’re down,” Schachtner told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Of her opponent’s negative campaigning against her, she said, “People just said, ‘You know what? We’re nicer than that.”

Schachtner’s upset victory is likely bad news for Walker, who faces re-election this November. It further suggests that control for the Wisconsin Senate, currently GOP-led at 18-14, may be up for grabs–which would have ramifications for statewide redistricting in 2020. By contrast, Senator Tammy Baldwin, the first-term Democrat also seeking re-election, has to be happy with the outcome; she had taped a video endorsement on Schachtner’s behalf. And whether a coincidence or not, former Governor Tim Pawlenty announced today that he would not run for the Senate seat recently vacated by Al Franken in neighboring Minnesota–a blow to GOP candidate recruiting efforts, which have been lackluster so far this year.

And if the loss in Wisconsin disheartened local and national Republicans, they found little reason to celebrate the results of three other special local elections. In a second Wisconsin race and in statehouse elections in Iowa and South Carolina, Republicans prevailed–but the Democratic candidates in these conservative districts outperformed Hillary Clinton by, on average, 21%.