Donald Trump’s Supreme Court pick has less support than another nominee in modern history. A new Gallup poll shows just 41% would like to see the Senate vote for Brett Kavanaugh. But popular opinion may not matter.  The only numbers that count are in the Senate.  Gallup reports:

“With Supreme Court confirmations now requiring a simple majority of Senate votes, and Republicans holding a majority in that chamber, Kavanaugh is likely to be confirmed. However, he has little cushion, with Republicans holding a two-seat advantage. It is possible that if public support for his nomination drops, it could tip moderate Republican senators against his confirmation; or if support for his nomination increases, it could convince moderate Democratic senators to back it.”

A Fox News Poll found a 38-32 percentage favorability rating, while a Pew poll found a 41-36 in favor.  In other words, his “confirmation rating” is very low.

From fivethirtyeight.com:

  • “You may be sensing a pattern. It’s not a huge sample size, but in the last few decades at least, Supreme Court nominees as unpopular as Kavanaugh have never been successfully confirmed.”

Here’s an issue that could further impact public support. A past statement Kavanaugh made may give us insight into how he feels about the Mueller investigation. More specifically, how Kavanaugh might rule on whether the President should be subpoenaed to testify before the special counsel. CNN reports:

“Speaking to a conservative group in 2016, Kavanaugh bluntly said he wanted to “put the final nail” in a 1988 Supreme Court ruling. That decision, known as Morrison v. Olson, upheld the constitutionality of provisions creating an independent counsel under the 1978 Ethics in Government Act — the same statute under which Ken Starr, for whom Kavanaugh worked, investigated President Bill Clinton. The law expired in 1999, when it was replaced by the more modest Justice Department regulation that governs special counsels like Robert Mueller.”

https://twitter.com/JamesKosur/status/1019597927528976385

The most divisive though remains Roe V. Wade. Vice news writes:

“Among the top concerns, according to the Pew poll, are abortion rights. Thirty nine percent of those polled said they wanted Kavanaugh to address his views on abortion during his confirmation hearings, as his nomination could pave the way for overturning Roe v. Wade, which legalized abortion across the U.S.”