Russia’s long-simmering threat to invade Ukraine appears to be reaching a boiling point. Here’s the latest:
- On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of two rebel-held areas in the Donbas region of Ukraine and sent “peacekeepers” – aka troops – to support militants there, a provocative move that violates international agreements.
- “I wouldn’t say that (it is) a fully fledged invasion, but Russian troops are on Ukrainian soil,” said EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell. (Jon Finer, the White House principal deputy national security adviser, was less ambivalent, telling CNN, “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is under way.”)
- President Joe Biden quickly announced sanctions that “prohibit new investment” in the contested area and the U.S. indicated that it was preparing more severe economic penalties if Putin made additional provocations. Biden announced those additional sanctions on Tuesday (see next bullet).
- “British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also said the U.K. would slap sanctions on five Russian banks and three wealthy individuals,” according to The Associated Press.
- In a remarks to the nation from the East Room of the White House on Tuesday afternoon, Biden called Russia’s movement in the Donbas “a flagrant violation of international law.”
- “Who in the Lord’s name does Putin think gives him the right to declare new so-called ‘countries’ on territory that belonged to his neighbors?” Biden said.
- The president announced a “first tranche” of sanctions that he says goes well beyond the international penalties imposed on Russia in 2014, when it invaded Crimea. The new sanctions target Russian sovereign debt, Russian elites and their families, and two Russian financial institutions.
- “We’ve cut off Russia’s government from Western finance,” Biden said. “It can no longer raise money from the West and cannot trade in its new debt on our markets or European markets either.”
- Of the penalties on Russian elites, Biden explained: “They share in the corrupt games of the Kremlin policies and should share in the pain as well.”
- Biden said the U.S. would impose additional sanctions if Putin decided to ratchet up hostilities.
- Biden reiterated that the U.S. has “no intention of fighting Russia” but said he’d continue supporting Ukraine with defensive assistance.
- Biden described the U.S. assistance to Ukraine as a “totally defensive moves on our part.”
- However, Biden declared that the U.S. “will defend every inch of NATO territory” and announced that U.S. troops already based in Europe were relocating to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to help bolster those nations against a potential Russian incursion.
- “We want to send an unmistakable message… that the United States together with our allies will defend every inch of NATO territory. And abide by the commitments we made to NATO,” Biden said.
- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz holds what is likely the biggest economic weapon that can be used against the Kremlin and fired it on Wednesday, indicating that he is delaying the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.
- “It’s a stunning turn of events for the $10 billion, Russia-to-Germany natural gas pipeline, which Scholz had long resisted naming as a potential sanctions target if Russia invaded Ukraine,” notes Axios.
- “Nord Stream 2 could deliver 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year. That’s more than 50% of Germany’s annual consumption and could be worth as much as $15 billion to Gazprom, the Russian state owned company that controls the pipeline,” reports CNN.
- Meanwhile, on the ground in Donbas, a Ukrainian military commanders reported intense shelling.
- “All night, the Russian troops were entering the territory. They haven’t moved out into the front positions and are staying back for now,” he told The Wall Street Journal. “When they start we’ll know.”
- Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, began to ready his troops for combat.
- “Dear soldiers and sailors, sergeants and officers, generals and admirals … the darkness of uncertainty has fallen,” he said in a Tuesday statement. “Our choice is very simple — to defend our country, our home, our family.”
- “There are difficult trials ahead. There will be losses,” he added. “We will have to go through pain, overcome fear and despair. But we will definitely win. Because we are on our land, and the truth is behind us.”
- Reznikov attended a funeral Tuesday morning for Capt. Anton Sydorov, a Ukrainian soldier who was killed in a shelling attack in the Donbas region on Saturday.
- Reznikov addressed Sydorov’s family, saying “We will not forget… we will not forgive either.”
- In Poland, thousands of U.S. troops are helping local officials prepare for a wave of refugees from Ukraine.
- “A nationwide attack on Ukraine could result in one million to five million refugees, with many of them pouring into Poland, Pentagon officials have estimated,” according to The New York Times.
- U.S. leaders have publicly concluded that Putin plans to conduct a full-blown invasion of Ukraine, but they remain committed to diplomacy. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to meet with his Russian counterpart on Thursday.